Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

T research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecast...

Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament.

Five university-based research groups competed to recruit forecasters, elicit their predictions, and aggregate those predictions to assign the most accurate probabilities to events in a 2-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our group tested and found support for three psychological drivers of accuracy: training, teaming, and tracking. Probability training corrected cognitive biases, encou...

Forecasting: Expectations, Intentions, and Confidence

All three articles in my dissertation gather information from individuals, analyze it, and aggregate that information into forecasts of upcoming events. The motivation is to make forecasts more efficient (accurate and timely), more versatile (provide the most useful information for each stakeholder), and more economically efficient (equally or more efficient and versatile for less time and/or m...

Item Response Models of Probability Judgments: Application to a Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament

In this article, we develop and study methods for evaluating forecasters and forecasting questions in dynamic environments. These methods, based on item response models, are useful in situations where items vary in difficulty, and we wish to evaluate forecasters based on the difficulty of the items that they forecasted correctly. In addition, the methods are useful in situations where we need t...

Forecasting ICT development through quantile confidence intervals☆